recap: nfl final four

i could not have been more wrong with my prediction. but that's why we have anomalies...right?

stay tuned for super bowl posts coming up this week and next.

the great north?

as the games were winding down this weekend, i could not help but notice how the final four are all "northern" teams (green bay, chicago, new york and pittsburgh). it got me thinking -- is this the most northern final four in nfl history? let's run the numbers:

1. my gut feeling was right. this is the most northern final four in nfl history, with an average latitude of 41.895° (roughly the same as chicago). the next closest groups were in 2000-01 (baltimore, oakland, new york and minnesota) and 2007-08 (new england, san diego, new york, and green bay).
2. there has been a northern trend the past few years. as the graph shows...there has been a ~4° trend north in the past 40 years or so.
3. this year also features the northern-most "southern" team in pittsburgh, but ranks third in northern-most "northern" team (green bay) behind seattle and minnesota.
4. the difference between "southern" and "northern" (a mere 4.06°) is the 4th smallest, behind cleveland-east rutherford (2.65°), pittsburgh-st. louis (3.35°) and orchard park-washington dc (3.95°).
5. the pittsburgh-chicago tandem of host cities ranks 5th in average lat behind denver-seattle ('06), new england-green bay ('97 & '08), denver-minneapolis ('99), oakland-minneapolis ('75 & '77).

so who has the advantage in these games?

• in games played where the host team had a lat greater than 40°, the AFC is 10-7 (pittsburgh is 5-5) and the NFC is 7-3 (chicago is 2-1).
• in matchups of two 40°+ teams, the away team is 3-1 (ne twice over pitt, ny over gb). the giants are the only home team to win (against the vikings in 2001). looked at through a different lens, the northern team won in the afc, while the southern team won in the nfc.

based on this info...the spatial prediction for the super bowl is chicago and new york jets.